By CHUCK RAASCH, Gannett National Writer
November 25. 2009 9:13AM
WASHINGTON — With Americans anxious about unemployment, the potential cost of health care reform and the anti-terrorism strategy the U.S. will follow in Afghanistan and at home, President Barack Obama has a huge sales job ahead.
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The challenges have intensified in Obama's 10 months in office, and more than half of Americans are dubious about his plans. In the latest USA Today/Gallup poll, 53 percent disapproved of Obama's actions on the economy and health care, and 55 percent disapproved of his performance on the war in Afghanistan.
Obama's 50 percent job approval rating was more reflective of his personal popularity than his political success.
His decision to hold a "jobs summit" early next month is a tacit admission that the $787 billion economic stimulus package he signed in February has not kept unemployment at bay. The jobless rate hit 10.2 percent in October, 2.6 percentage points higher than when Obama took office in January.
The 2010 elections could take place amid the highest unemployment of any election since World War II. Political analyst Charlie Cook said that the only year after WWII that unemployment was higher than 8 percent within two months of an election was 1982, during Republican President Ronald Reagan's first term, when congressional Republicans got trounced.
Political handicappers keep lowering their forecasts for Democrats in the House, Senate, gubernatorial and legislative mid-term elections next November. That would add challenges for Obama, who even with significant Democrat majorities in the House and Senate, has found health care reform a tougher task than many supporters anticipated.
"If unemployment is over 10 percent, that is an easy message for Republicans that things are not getting better," said Nathan Gonzales, an analyst for the Rothenberg Political Report.
Some think Americans still lay heavy blame on the administration of President George W. Bush, and they say the key for the Democrats in 2010 will be whether Americans think sufficient progress has been made on the jobs front.
"He inherited a mess," University of Maryland economist Peter Morici said.
Morici expects unemployment to hit 11 percent and says it would have to dramatically improve by August to help Democrats in next year's elections.
"If it goes up and starts to come back down, they will still have trouble with the (2010) elections, but maybe not in 2012," when Obama would be eligible for a second term, Morici said.
But Obama's and the Democrats' challenges transcend the economy.
Obama got a reason to celebrate Thanksgiving early when the Senate voted Saturday to proceed with debate on a massive reform of health insurance. But some moderate Democrats and independents who voted yes are not happy with the bill, and they could join Republicans in blocking it during floor debate.
Additionally, the Senate measure, which could cost an estimated $848 billion over 10 years, will have to be reconciled with a more costly House version.
As the legislative process grinds on, the public is becoming increasingly wary of the bill.
In the Nov. 20-22 USA Today/Gallup Poll, 35 percent wanted their member of Congress to vote for a health care bill this year, while 42 percent said they wanted their representative to oppose it. The poll of 1,017 adults had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
And the timing couldn't have been worse for the release of experts' new recommendations that women get fewer mammograms and Pap tests as they raised the specter of health care rationing.
While the U.S. is in the midst of a slow pullback in Iraq, the war in Afghanistan is heating up. Casualties are up, and there is renewed emphasis here and abroad to deal with the problems of terrorist breeding grounds in the rough territory along the Afghan-Pakistani border.
After weeks of pondering options, Obama is expected to announce a new strategy next week on the war, which his predecessor started in 2001.
Obama is weighing whether to send as many as 40,000 additional troops to help beat back the Taliban and stabilize a recently re-elected government that is plagued by corruption.
Two of three respondents in the USA Today/Gallup poll said things were going badly in Afghanistan, but respondents were split evenly on whether it would be better to dramatically increase troop levels or begin pulling out.
Meanwhile, the Obama administration's decision to try high-profile 9/11 terrorism suspects in New York City has sparked heavy opposition, with some Obama critics saying it could put more focus on U.S. tactics in the war on terror than on the suspects' alleged actions.
In the USA Today/Gallup Poll, 59 percent said the defendants should be tried in a military tribunal.
Contact Chuck Raasch at craasch@gannett.com, follow him on Twitter or join in the Facebook conversation.
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About RaaschChuck Raasch is national political writer for Gannett. His column, New Politics, appears here and on USA TODAY.com. A native of South Dakota and a graduate of South Dakota State University, Raasch has covered political campaigns since 1978, including Tom Daschle's first race for Congress and George McGovern's last race for the Senate. He has covered presidential campaigns since 1988.
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